New! MECAS(07)07 - Cross Border Investments in the Global Sugar Industry

Southern Africa is home to some of the globe’s most efficient and cost-competitive sugar industries, many with significant potential for further production expansion. Domestic policy reform, integration under SADC and more broadly within COMESA, reform of the EU sugar regime, expanding access under the EU’s EBA initiative for LDC countries, EPA negotiations between the EU and the ACP region, and possible WTO outcomes under the Doha Development Round, are all crucial drivers impacting the sugar export potential of the region.
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New! MECAS(07)06 - Cross Border Investments in the Global Sugar Industry

This study details the most important developments in cross-border investments in the world sugar industry of today, whose weight as a market driver in net sugar exporters has increased considerably over the past few years. The first part of the paper therefore focuses on the role of foreign direct investment in sugar production in fast-growing net sugar exporters like Brazil and LDCs in Southern Africa. The second part of the paper looks at demand-driven cross-border investments, such as those for sugar refining at destination in the Middle East as well as foreign ownership of sugar production in large importers like Russia, China and the EU.
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New! MECAS(07)05 - The Outlook for the Far East Sugar Market

The study assesses the prospects of the Far East sugar supply and demand and their impact on the future patterns of world sugar trade. Having analysed current trends and prospects for the coming 10 years for sugar production, consumption and trade in the region, the ISO has arrived to the conclusion that the Far East will remain an area of structural sugar deficit. The net result of accelerated growth of sugar use as against stable but slower expansion in output will be a significant increase in the region’s net-import requirements from the current prevailing level of 2-2.5 mln tonnes. The ISO projections show a growth in the regional net-imports to the level of about 4 mln tonnes by 2010 and further to 6.3 mln tonnes by 2015.
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MECAS(06)18: The World Market Product Structure and Prices of Physical Sugar

The growing dominance of Brazil as the key source of raw sugar (especially Very High Polarization sugar) and the rapid retraction of EU high quality white sugar exports are key drivers impacting the future level of the physical trade and trading patterns. This is a key conclusion drawn from a new ISO study on “ The world market product structure and pricing of physical sugar” (MECAS(06)18). These two developments hold implications not only for the viability of large destinations refineries in the Middle East and North Africa, but also future of the global whites sugar premium.
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MECAS(06)17: Sugar and Economic Development

This new study analyses the macro and microeconomic implications of sugar production in the developing world. Developing countries constitute an important group within the ISO membership, or over 60% of our member countries. They are also increasing their role in the world sugar market. The study focuses on the impact of the sugar industries on macro and micro economic indicators in ACPs as well as in fast growing developing-country sugar producers such as Brazil and the LDCs.
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MECAS(06)16: The Outlook for Russia’s Sugar Economy and Import Prospects

The outlook for Russia’s sugar economy, the world’s leading sugar importer, is analysed in this study with a view to understand the future role of Russia in the world sugar market. The first part of the paper examines the key drivers behind the growth of Russia’s production and the level of self-sufficiency in sugar over recent years. Particular attention is paid to the ongoing process of industry consolidation and recently announced plans for further expansion, as well as the high sensitivity of the industry to the level of border protection and difficult to predict political
developments in Russia’s relationship with neighbouring FSU countries.
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MECAS(06)06 – New Investments and capacity expansion in Brazil’s Sugar and Ethanol Sector

This new ISO study looks into how new investments and capacity expansion in Brazil’s cane sector will impact the domestic and world sugar and ethanol markets to 2010. Projections on sugar and ethanol production and exports by Brazil to the beggining of the next decade are
presented in the paper, based on an assessment on new mills by state, foreign direct investment, expansion of area under cane, global and domestic demand for sugar and ethanol, among other factors.
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MECAS(06)05 – The Outlook for China’s Sugar Economy

The study reviews and analyses the key drivers of the national sugar economy of China, providing the ISO assessment of China’s sugar supply and demand up until 2015. In the long run, the domestic industry is not expected to be able to meet the projected growth in sugar use and from 2010 China is forecast to become one of the world’s largest importers.
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MECAS(06)04 – Analysis of Cane & Beet Payment Systems

A wide diversity of cane and beet payment systems define how revenues are shared between growers and processors and they also play a central role in establishing the incentives that growers and processors face. A revised cane payment system could be one of the tools
available to help drive required performance changes in an effort to boost indusrtry competitiveness. For EU sugar beet growers, reform of the sugar regime is resulting in changes to long-standing contractual arrangements between growers and processors. The specifics of the cane payment systems in 7 countries are explored – Australia, Brazil, Fiji, India, Mexico, South Africa and Thailand. Attention is also focussed on beet payment systems in the European Union, whilst pricing schemes in the United States and Russia are also briefly
considered.
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MECAS(05)18 – Sugar Freight Rates: Trends and Prospects

Over the past three years, the world sugar economy has witnessed an unprecedented rise in freight volatility and freight rates. Currently freight cost can account for up to 40% of the landed cost of imported sugar. In a new ISO study the recent dynamics of freight rates in the context of world sugar market price developments are reviewed, in order to examine their implications for the global sugar market.
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MECAS(05)17 - Sugar export supply response to world price dynamics

This study investigates the historical links between the unit value of exports and global sugar export supply. The paper also quantifies the rate of sugar export supply response to world price dynamics expressed in USD and in national currency across the world's largest sugar net exporters, using a 20-year panel data series on prices, exports, production and consumption.
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MECAS(05)16 - Sugar Substitutes Revisited: recent developments and outlook

In this study the markets for HIS, low calorie sweeteners and HFS are separately reviewed, in particular highlighting recent and prospective developments in terms of market growth, the factors driving demand, as well as identifying major producers and their recent and planned capacity expansions. The question of the extent to which the market trends and developments identified for HIS, low calorie sweeteners and HFS are impacting consumption growth prospects for sugar is then addressed.
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MECAS(05)07 – Understanding key drivers favouring destination refineries and their possible future impact on world sugar trade

The construction of 8 large and low-cost destination refineries since 1995 in the Middle East, West Africa and Indonesia has boosted world raw sugar trade to record levels. Another 5 such refineries are due to commence operation between 2005 and 2008. Not only are these refineries boosting raw sugar trade in global terms, they are also impacting regional trade flows. In this paper the key drivers explaining the significant investment in stand-alone destination refineries over the past decade are explored and analysed as are the consequences of this trend for world sugar trade patterns. Trends in the white sugar premium are found not to drive investment in destination refining. Instead, 4 key drivers are identified as the dynamics of freight rates for bulked raw sugar and bagged white sugar, tariff protection, the surge in availability of VHP raw sugar, and rapidly growing markets for white sugar. Over coming years, the increasing availability and use of non-refined white sugar is an emerging threat to destination refineries.
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MECAS (05)06 – Thailand’s sugar: future export prospects

This paper presents an outlook for Thailand’s sugar exports to 2014/15 after considering the most recent developments in the national sugar industry. In the analysis and projections, it incorporates the country’s current plans of promoting diversification through cane-based ethanol production as well as the improvement of the industry’s revenue sharing system between millers and growers.
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MECAS (05)05 - International Survey of Sugar Crop Yields and Prices Paid for Sugar Cane and Beet

The study is an updated international survey on agricultural and industrial yields all over the globe. The ISO also reproduces and analyses a long term statistical series of prices paid for sugar cane and beet in a representative cluster of sugar producing countries.
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MECAS(04)17 - World sugar demand: outlook to 2010

This paper assesses the drivers of sugar consumption and projects its future growth by geographical region to 2010. The study also presents derived elasticities from the historical interdependence between income, population growth, domestic prices and consumption, using data for 158 countries
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MECAS(04)15 - Transition, Rationalisation and Diversification in Australia’s Sugar Industry: implications for export prospects

Australia’s embattled sugar industry is entering a period of significant transition driven by the need for rationalisation, reform and diversification. Bolstered by the recovery in world sugar market prices during 2004, and aided by the Federal and State government restructuring packages announced in May this year, the industry is looking to re-establish itself with a sustainable and viable long term future. Furthermore, additional regulatory reform was agreed in April this year in an effort to ensure there were no legislative impediments to achieving industry productivity gains. Industry outcomes will take some time to unravel, and will depend on how the industry reacts to regulatory reform, the government restructuring and assistance package, and the way it responds to continuing global challenges.
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Mecas(04)06 - Sugar Production Costs: an Initial Framework Study
The study analyses a host of methodological and theoretical issues that have to be addressed in order to develop a method which generates an unbiased ranking of producers according to efficiency at the national level in an internationally comparable form.
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MECAS(04)05 - Brazil’s Ethanol Future: Implications for Brazil’s Sugar Exports
This paper represents the first attempt by the ISO to analyse potential ethanol demand in Brazil and worldwide to 2010 and the extent to which it could impact on Brazil’s sugar export availability. Potential ethanol demand growth from future sales of the recently launched flexifuel cars in Brazil as well as prospects for the world trade of the biofuel are incorporated into a baseline scenario of projections for cane use in Brazil to 2010.
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MECAS(04)04 - World Sugar and Renewable Energy: New Drivers and their Impacts
Under the Kyoto Protocol and polices to combat climate change, new opportunities are being opened for the world sugar industry, which has a vast potential for producing renewable energy. In particular the sugar industry is well placed to benefit from carbon finance under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol. To exploit this carbon finance potential, the sugar industry must understand the regulatory environment for the carbon market, key concepts underlying the CDM and its associated institutions and procedures, as well as to know the likely behaviour of carbon credit buyers. Fuel ethanol from sugar crops fit less well into the CDM concept and for the time being the biofuels opportunity will be primarily driven by the extent to which governments implement legislation supporting fuel ethanol programmes.
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MECAS(03)20 - Domestic Prices for Sugar: International Comparison
The new ISO study provides a seven-year series of annual averages for domestic prices (at retail level) in more than 100 countries. The paper also comments on correlations between world and domestic prices in exporters and importers of sugar, beet and cane sugar producers, developed and developing economies (14 pages).
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MECAS(03)19 - Deregulation of India’s Sugar Sector: Status, Prospects and Impacts -
This new ISO study provides a comprehensive and detailed review and analysis of India’s sugar sector and policy, together with a discussion of the possible implications of deregulation for the industry (39 pages).
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MECAS(03)18 - Exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on the world sugar market
A new ISO study that investigates the impact of recent exchange rate movements on the world’s top importers and exporters as to their potential short-term export supply and import demand changes. Sugar exchange rate indices were constructed and a cross-country competitiveness comparison was established for the world’s top 10 importers and exporters (21 pages).
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MECAS(03)08 – SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN SUGAR – TRENDS
The ISO analyses trends and prospects for changes in sugar production in importing countries and their self-sufficiency in sugar with a view to understanding the potential for further rises in world sugar trade over the longer term (34 pages).
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MECAS(03)07 – TAKING STOCK OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET
The paper reviews the recent econometric literature on the world sugar market. It identifies the studies that provide the most important contributions to the understanding of the world sugar market and concludes suggesting the use of alternative modelling as well as potential scenarios for future econometric work on sugar (28 pages).
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MECAS(03)06 – THE 2002 US FARM LAW: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET
The Farm Security and Investment Act of 2002, which governs Federal farm programmes in the United States for the next six years, continued the key cornerstones of US sugar policy: the loan support programme and the tariff-rate import quota, both of which have remained essentially unchanged for the past twenty years. However, the policy could face significant pressures within the next 5 years, not only from the NAFTA sweetener’s edifice with Mexico, but also as a possible consequence of multilateral trade reform under the WTO Doha Round (39 pages).
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MECAS(02)18 – THE EVERYTHING BUT ARMS INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET
This paper reviews the sugar related provisions of the EBA initiative, investigates the potential for LDC countries to boost output to exploit the opportunities provided by the Initiative, considers ramifications for existing ACP suppliers to the EU market, as well as to provide a preliminary assessment of the longer term implications for EU sugar policy.
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MECAS(02)17 – ETHANOL FROM SUGAR CROPS: PROSPECTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE WORLD SUGAR MARKET
A new wave of interest in fuel ethanol schemes potentially has important impacts for the world sugar market. In this paper the key fuel ethanol initiatives around the globe are reviewed, and the key factors impacting the commercial viability of ethanol from sugar crops are identified and investigated, with a view to better understanding the longer term potential opportunities that booming bio-fuels demand might provide for sugar.
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MECAS(02)09 – CHINA’S ACCESSION TO THE WTO – WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR SUGAR?
At the end of 2001 the World Trade Organization Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar, formally adopted China’s membership in the WTO. It is generally agreed that the accession to the WTO is the latest step in China’s journey from a centrally planned economy to one that is market driven and globally integrated. In the sugar world exporters have pinned great hopes on China reasserting itself as a major importing power in the world sugar market but so far the country’s import performance remains lacklustre. In a new study released on 9 May 2002, the ISO tries to assess China’s future role in sugar trade in coming years. (15 pages).
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MECAS(02)08 – KEY DRIVERS OF THE WORLD SUGAR & SWEETENERS MARKET
Beyond the immediate outlook for depressed prices key drivers are pushing and pulling the world sugar market from several directions, creating significant tensions. Key drivers will continue to manifest change in the world sugar market and ultimately dictate the long-term equilibrium world sugar price level. In this study, the most crucial drivers – existing and emerging - are clearly identified and evaluated. (72 pages).
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MECAS(01)19 – SUGAR AND ENVIRONMENT – SURVEY OF ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATION AFFECTING SUGAR CROP GROWERS, BEET & CANE PROCESSORS/MILLERS
The survey covers legislation controlling water use and disposal,. Air emission, land use and soil quality, as well as solid waste disposal affecting sugar crop growers and processors. It is based on information from respondents in 38 countries to the ISO questionnaire. The survey complements and earlier ISO study (Environmental legislationand its Impact on the Sugar Industry (Mecas(95)19)) (67 pages).
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MECAS(01)08 - FSU SUGAR MARKET TEN YEARS AFTER THE COLLAPSE OF THE USSR
The region maintains its position as the largest destination for sugar traded internationally. In this study major developments in the sugar sector of the region during the last decade are reviewed in order to identify common trends for the sugar markets of the twelve FSU countries in transition as well as individual country patterns and their impact on the world sugar situation (25 pages).
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MECAS (01)07 - SUGAR PRICE SEASONALITY
Seasonality in monthly world sugar prices is investigated using several formal procedures of increasing complexity including classical seasonal decomposition, the US Census method II (X-II) and time series modelling using Box-Jenkins methodology (24 pages).
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MECAS (00)24 – SUGAR & ETHANOL: HOW PERFECT A MATCH
Countries including Australia, Thailand and India are considering the feasibility of large-scale ethanol production. Key issues and challenges for ethanol programs are identified and discussed in this paper, with a view to better understanding, the prospects, indeed if any, for a match between ethanol and sugar over the longer term (18 pages).
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MECAS(00)20 - SMALL-SCALE SUGAR CANE GROWERS
In a number of countries small family farms play an important role in providing the raw material for the industry. Sugar industries there give special attention to improvements in cane cultivation, land productivity and farms’ economies in general. The ISO study presents a brief report on the situation in selected countries (Belize, Fiji, Kenya, Mauritius, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa, Swaziland and Trinidad and Tobago) with a particular emphasis on special programmes supporting small sugar cane farmers (21 pages).
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MECAS(00)19 – SUGAR-HIGH INTENSITY SWEETENER BLENDS: A THREAT TO SUGAR CONSUMPTION?
Over the medium to longer terms, the competitive threat for sugar from HIS will increase through this practice of blending sugar and HIS in non-diet products. Consequently, there is every prospect that the share of intense sweeteners in the global sweeteners market will continue to increase, possibly breaching the 10 percent mark by 2005 (22 pages).
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MECAS(00)10 – ORGANIC SUGAR
Practices and Standards for Producing Organic Sugar, Demand Potential The study reviews practices and standards for organic production. There is an emphasis on its sugar-related aspects, as well as supply availability and demand potential for organic sugar (16 pages).
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