FO Licht sees 2012/13 with more surplus

Published: 06/22/2012, 5:20:23 PM

FO Licht said Friday that early indications suggest another year of large sugar crops across the globe in 2012/13, with total production perhaps even reaching this season's all-time high, which it estimates at 176.8 million metric tonnes, according to Dow Jones.

The Germany-based analyst said it had increased its estimate for world sugar production in 2011/12 by 1 million tonnes, a result of "rather modest adjustments here and there," instead of a large change for any specific country.

However, FO Licht said the likelihood that Brazil's 2012/13 Centre South crop may come in at the lower end of its "rather pessimistic" estimate of 475 million-515 million tonnes of cane has increased in recent weeks.

Crushing of next season's cane crop in the top producing nation's key growing region was hindered by wet weather, which initially delayed the start-up of many mills and hampered operations after processing commenced.

FO Licht said while it is still early in the season and yields could yet improve, it is difficult to make a case for an upward revision of its previous guidance and it now seems unlikely that there will be a sizable increase in Brazilian sugar production in 2012/13, if at all.

Nevertheless, FO Licht said Europe may be headed for another bumper crop, with encouraging weather prospects as beets were sown similarly early as last year and the weather has been largely favorable.

The analyst said Africa may be headed for another rise in output as production in South Africa recovers, while some other countries on the continent continue to ramp up production.

North America and Central America also seem poised for a further rise in output due to larger production from Mexico and the U.S., FO Licht said, with the same trend seen in Oceania, where Australian production is likely to recover significantly.

Finally, FO Licht said Asian production will likely hold up well as Indian production may be not much lower than in 2011/12, while production is likely to climb further in countries such as Thailand, China, Indonesia and the Philippines.