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MECAS(10)17 – World Sugar Demand: Outlook to 2020 (English)

* Please note this report is also available in French, Russian and Spanish.

This paper presents an updated and revamped version of the ISO sugar consumption model, developed for the first time in 2004.

The first part of the paper provides an assessment of all major drivers of sugar consumption, namely income and population growth, level of urbanization, prices of substitutes such as HFCS, non-centrifugal sweeteners, and HIS, age structure of the population, impact of industrial and direct consumption on growth rates, as well as differences in consumption trends in net importers compared to net exporters. For example, the analysis is illustrated for cases of countries where changes in income have clearly impacted sugar demand (including the effects of last year's recession in some regions), and also for cases where changes in urbanization, sugar consumption type and population growth are directly changing sugar consumption growth worldwide.

Based on time-series data for over 150 countries between 1984 and 2009, including information on domestic retail sugar prices, prices of caloric sugar substitutes and other variables, the last part of the paper uses a comprehensive set of econometric estimations to estimate future sugar demand. An assessment of prevailing assumptions on future income and population growth is made for all eight geographical regions - i.e. North America; the Caribbean, Central and South America; Western Europe; Eastern Europe; Equatorial and Southern Africa; the Middle East and Northern Africa; the Indian Subcontinent; and Far East and Oceania, and three different scenarios for sugar consumption growth by region to 2020 are presented. For this purpose, different sets of income, population and sugar price elasticities are used for each region as well as for net importers and net exporters separately.

Crucially, this new version of the model also allows the forecasting of sugar consumption by country rather than just by region. A full list containing sugar consumption forecasts for over 150 countries to 2020 is finally provided.

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