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MECAS(14)18 - Government Fuel Ethanol Policy

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Publisher: International Sugar Organisation
Format: digital download (PDF), 11.7” × 16.5”
Pages: 54
Publication date: December 2014
Languages: English*


*Also available in French, Russian and Spanish.

This study provides an update to the 2007 ISO paper (MECAS(07)17) on government fuel ethanol policy worldwide and builds on a 2012 ISO paper (MECAS(12)19) on global fuel ethanol outlook scenarios. It also draws on information provided on the ISO Ethanol Yearbook 2014. Like in previous studies, the focus remains on market and legislative developments, trade prospects as well as implications for the sugar market. The main objective of this paper is to explore key policy implementation issues in the world top ten fuel ethanol consumers (which together account for 99% of the world market) and to provide indicative demand figures to 2025 for the three biggest markets globally, namely US, Brazil and the EU. The pace of expansion in the world fuel ethanol sector has slowed down significantly in recent years due to a negative combination of factors including high energy and agricultural commodity prices, the resurfacing of the food vs fuel debate, delays in the development and deployment of advanced biofuels as well looming concerns over indirect land use change. This unfavourable scenario has spurred negative sentiment over first-generation ethanol among policy makers, putting the world’s major biofuels programs under revision.

Nevertheless, demand is likely to continue to expand throughout the next decade on a combination of growing gasoline consumption in emerging countries and higher blending mandates worldwide.


 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INDEX OF FIGURES

INDEX OF TABLES

INDEX OF BOXES

GLOSSARY OF TERMS AND ACRONYMS

INTRODUCTION

PART 1: THE GLOBAL FUEL ETHANOL MARKET

DEVELOPMENTS IN PRODUCTION
DEVELOPMENTS IN CONSUMPTION
FUEL ETHANOL PRICING
GLOBAL TRADE
GENERAL STATE OF THE INDUSTRY

PART 2: FUEL ETHANOL POLICY AND OUTLOOK IN KEY MARKETS

UNITED STATES
The “blend wall”
Assessing the significance of the RFS program
The case for E85
Outlook to 2025
BRAZIL
The role of ethanol in Brazil’s road transport fuel mix
Is there room for growth?
Consequences of Brazil’s fuel pricing policy
Outlook to 2025
EU
An uncertain outlook
Reforming the Renewable Energy Directive
The issue with double-counting
Outlook to 2025
POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN OTHER MARKETS
Canada
China
Thailand
Argentina
India
Colombia
Philippines

PART 3: FUEL ETHANOL POLICY IN AN EVOLVING ENERGY CONTEXT

 

PART 4: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUGAR

 

 

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